2024: What Industry Trends to Expect

The period between November and April is usually an interesting one for the gun world, with January’s SHOT Show being smack dab in the middle.

In the months leading up to SHOT, we hear about a chunk of upcoming releases, and in the months following SHOT, we get to see what “sticks.”

This period of time can be very dynamic, and it’s a time when nerds like me pay attention to try and see what direction the gun industry is trending in.

Gun writers are like any other journalist; we are always trying to stay on the bleeding edge to bring our community the most up-to-date content we can.

I’ve seen and observed a number of interesting trends in the last few months and put them together to give you an idea of what we might expect in the coming year. The list is in an order that represents the likelihood you’ll see each trend catch fire.

What’s Trending?

Modern Tommy Guns

SHOT show this year yielded a weird yet mostly overlooked gaggle of rifles that take on the look, feel, and even design of the classic Thompson submachine gun.

Kahr Arms has made Thompson replicas for some time now, but this year, they unveiled a new model that decks the rifle out in M-LOK rails, AR-style stock, and a full-length optics rail. It’s silly but also kinda cool at the same time.

Diamondback Firearms, a Florida-based company that produces everything from ARs to Pocket Pistols, also had their new Thompson-style PCC on display — the TG-Nine.

It’s a 9mm AR style, direct blowback PCC outfitted with a wood stock, pistol grip, and forward grip. The TG-Nine comes with a Magpul D50 drum and still has an M-LOK handguard, an optics rail, and other modern features. One of the best Thompson throwbacks is the Cutt’s compensator at the end of the gun.

Finally, Bishop Firearms, a small, highly custom gun shop, produced the AR-45. It’s an AR in .45 ACP with its own Thompson look and feel.

The receivers are billet and have that matte grey Thompson look. An M-LOK handguard is present and cut to expose the barrel, which is outfitted with cooling fins much like the OG Thompson.

The stock, pistol grip, and forward grip are also wooden. The AR-45 is available in various calibers, including 10mm.

.380s Are Growing

When I say .380s are growing, not only do I mean we are getting more new guns in .380 ACP, but they are getting physically bigger.

While the age of the .380 pocket pistol isn’t over, there are more guns being chambered in the cartridge that are more appropriate for the capability of the round.

A whole swath of .380s have recently hit the market, including but not limited to the Ruger Security-380, Beretta 80X, various Tisas and EAA imported Beretta clones, Rock Island Armory LI380, Sig P365-380, and the Glock 25.

In my opinion, the .380 ACP was never intended to be exclusively relegated to tiny guns like the Ruger LCP. These smaller guns produce more recoil while significantly cutting the cartridge’s performance and ability to expand or penetrate reliably.

Take the same cartridge and toss it in a compact-sized gun like the Ruger Security-380, and now you have soft recoil and way better ballistic performance. The .380 ACP can be looked at as the lower recoil alternative to 9mm in guns like the P365. With the right ammo, they can be capable, easy-to-handle defensive firearms.

The Rise of PDWs

The NATO definition of a Personal Defense Weapon involves some selective-fire SMG-like guns, but for the civilian market, a PDW is a weapon larger than a handgun but way smaller than a rifle.

These guns are often braced pistols or large-format pistols that are still smaller than AR-type pistols.

Tommy Built unveiled their T7, a civilian version of the MP7, which is as clone-correct as one can get without a happy switch.

Palmetto State Armory also displayed its own MP7-like handgun that uses their 5.7x28mm Rock pistol as its basis. Farrowtech also rolled out a dress-up kit for the KelTec CP33 to make it more MP7-like.

Flux Defense, known for their P320 Raider chassis, released the way too cool P365 Raider. This is an even smaller PDW package to convert your concealed carry gun, but I found it allowed me to get solid hits at almost 50 yards.

PDWs are exciting to me, but they tend to be fairly expensive, and the ATF is constantly changing their opinion on pistol braces, so they might not take over the way I want them to.

Suppressors are Evolving

The NFA likely caused suppressor technology to remain stagnant for decades. However, as inflation has made the $200 tax stamp less of an obstacle, we’ve seen rapid development in suppressor technology.

The rise of flow-through suppressors is one of the most significant improvements to suppressors in recent years.

If you shoot suppressed, you are getting an increased dose of gas and all sorts of nasty stuff flowing through the can and into your face. Flow-through suppressors cut noise but also allow the majority of that gas and toxic mess to fly out the front of the can instead of blowing back directly into your face.

PTR has released a line of VENT suppressors that utilize flow-through technology, although it’s different than most. Their cans use additive manufacturing, a.k.a. high-end 3D printing. The use of titanium foam material keeps the suppressor light but super tough and crazy quiet.

Small Arms Technologies is a small company that has begun producing carbon fiber-like suppressors that are incredibly light and surprisingly tough.

They are capable of excellent sound suppression and resist heat better than steel cans while being lighter. They are making suppressors for rifles in 5.56 and .300 Blackout, as well as 9mm and .22 LR.

Revolvers Are Cool (Again)

Was there a time when revolvers weren’t cool? Maybe not, but we can’t deny the loss of market share to the polymer frame, striker-fired pistols, and other more modern options. However, SHOT 2024 showed us they aren’t dead yet.

This year, Taurus released a wave of new revolvers and several new editions of old ones. We have a 327 Defender Toro, a 605 Executive, the single-action Deputy, and others.

Smith & Wesson teamed up with Lipsey’s and American Fighting Revolver to build a new version of the classic J-frame that, believe it or not, has proper sights, grips, and even a revival of the sweet .32 H&R Magnum round.

Diamondback gets another mention on this list with their introduction of their lightweight .357 Magnum SDR. Colt is releasing blued models of the Python, Chiappa is releasing a Match Master version of the Rhino, Ruger is releasing a .22 Hornet revolver, and the list goes on.

Retro Rifles Are Back

Retro rifles had a massive resurgence a few years ago but faded away almost as quickly as they came. The guys who wanted retro rifles got them, and that market sector kind of closed shop.

But this year, they are back on the menu. Major companies are introducing new, more affordable retro rifles and braced pistols.

Springfield Armory and Bushmaster both showed off M16A2 clones. Bushmaster is supposedly considering bringing back fixed carry handle models of their popular XM-15 series.

H&R, now owned by PSA and run by the NoDak Spud, displayed a ton of various retro rifles. Awesome designs like the Colt LMG and the DOE 9mm SMG-style guns were at their booth.

It seems like other companies are starting to pick up on the trend this second go-around. Will it be a short experiment? Maybe, but with larger companies taking on the challenge, it seems like availability will be greater, and prices will be lower.

The Return of the Lever Action

The most undeniable trend of the last couple of years has been the revival of the lever action rifle.

A major headline this year was Smith & Wesson’s release of the 1854, their first lever gun since the actual 1800s.

Following the footsteps of last year’s POF Tombstone, both Aero Precision and Stag Arms released modern lever guns. Bond Arms, a derringer company, released the insane LVRB, which is a magazine-fed lever gun that can use AR uppers. Budget AR company Bear Creek Arsenal also introduced an AR-based lever-action dubbed the MaulAR.

Let’s not forget that classic lever guns like Henry are jumping into the AR magazine-fed rifle with 5.56 and .300 Blackout options. Rossi is making more and more lever guns in varying calibers, and their sister company, Heritage, has also started making numerous rimfire lever guns.

Lever action rifles are everywhere, but why? Maybe the market is bored of the AR dominance; maybe Yellowstone and Jurassic World put them back on the map. Who knows for sure, but they are back and in force.

On the Way Out

Before we leave the conversation, let’s talk about what might be on the way out. The elephant in the room here is .30 Super Carry.

While .30 Super Carry provided near 9mm firepower with higher capacity, it just hasn’t taken off.

The cartridge is a great performer ballistically and offers expansion, penetration, and more. However, there wasn’t a rush to adopt it. Outside of S&W and Nighthawk, there are almost no options for guns.

On top of that, the price for a box of .30 Super Carry FMJ was about that of 9mm. While this put it around the same price as .40 S&W and .45 ACP, it was still a factor for some people.

Outside of the Hi-Point carbine, I’m not aware of any new guns in .30 Super Carry. Titans like Sig and Glock have ignored the cartridge, and even Springfield, who is more prone to adopt cartridges than other companies, left .30 Super Carry on read.

Final Thoughts

It’s a new year, and with it, we have a variety of new guns. Finally, we had a year that wasn’t only AR-15s and “revolutionary” polymer frame pistols. It has been different, and different is good.

Are there any trends you have noticed that we missed? Which ones do you hope will take off? Let us know in the comments below! Be sure to check out some of the other awesome guns that debuted at SHOT in our Best Guns of SHOT Show 2024 article!