Do Presidential Elections Impact Gun Sales?

Presidential election cycles summon longer lines at the gun counter and ammo shelves that resemble a Thanksgiving dinner table after kickoff, subjecting American gun owners to levels of angst reserved only for braces, pimples, and junior high crushes.

Politicians on both sides of the issue see guns as a surefire way to secure more votes.

In late 1998, the FBI began publishing reports of the total background check requests submitted through the ATF’s new NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System). These reports count everything from Form 4473s to Form 1s and beyond. Most reported numbers are retail sales of firearms and NFA items (suppressors, SBRs, etc.)

By nature, the FBI’s data excludes private sales (in states that promote gun owner privacy) and homemade firearms (like completed 80% lower receivers). Still, while the FBI’s numbers aren’t comprehensive or the most accurate, they do reveal some telling trends.

Whether you’re a single mom new to the concealed carry lifestyle or you’ve been shooting competitively for 30 years, the numbers show that elections — and one other key factor — significantly influence your likelihood of dropping big bundles of cash at your local gun store.

So, let’s dive into the data and see just how big of a difference election years make on gun sales.

Firearm Sales Increase in Election Years

“Firearm sales go up in election years,” according to Mark Oliva of the National Shooting Sports Foundation, and the data backs him up.

Gun sales have increased every election year since NICS went live, although things got off to a slow start. In 2000, the first post-NICS election year, 8.5 million Americans submitted to an ATF background check; however, the 2004 election saw only a slight uptick, with 8.7 million requests.

However, that changed during the 2008 presidential election when Barack Obama’s candidacy kickstarted the trend of high sales spikes every presidential election cycle.

Since 2008, background checks have increased an average of 146% every four-year cycle.

During Obama’s first run for the White House in 2008, gun owners rushed the doors to the tune of 12.7 million background checks, one and a half times the number recorded four years earlier.

Obama’s 2012 re-election solidified his moniker of “Best Gun Salesman in History.” Compared to 2008, gun sales increased by 154%, the highest percentage jump on record. From 2008 to 2016, NICS requests grew by 65%.

The Clinton-Trump showdown of 2016 pushed NICS numbers up almost 4.4 million in a single year, but numbers dropped during the next two years, resulting in the so-called “Trump slump,” the first significant downturn since 2000.

The 2020 election colluded with lockdown-era crime and unrest to launch NICS numbers into magnum territory. Background checks shot through the roof, hitting 39.7 million requests in 2020 and 38.9 million in 2021. (Numbers have cooled a bit since then, but 2023 still saw 29.8 million background checks, 3.5 times the total reported in 2000.)

Supply & Demand During Election Cycles

Oliva points out that selling guns is a business proposition, and the law of supply and demand drives everything. The 2016 spike and the following slump perfectly illustrate this law in action.

In 1994, Bill Clinton signed the Assault Weapons Ban into law, severely limiting sales of AR-15s and similar rifles. In 2016, Hillary Clinton ran for the White House.

According to Oliva, gun owners saw Hillary and remembered Bill. They believed access to the extremely popular AR-15 would again be restricted, maybe even permanently. Suddenly, no one could find an AR-15 on the shelf for a reasonable price; a rifle that the NSSF estimates outnumbers all Ford F-150s on the road today.

In today’s market, a rifle like the Smith & Wesson M&P15 can retail for under $600 (even less street price). During the heat of 2016, though, the same rifle commanded four-digit price tags and was tough to find.

Gunmakers supercharged their production to keep up, but moving a behemoth takes time. They did it, but demand dried up following Hillary’s loss at the polls. Production kept chugging until manufacturers figured out people truly were buying less. By then, they had more stock than they knew how to handle.

Too many guns plus not enough buyers equals overflowing shelves and dropping prices, exactly what we saw from 2017 to 2019. Act 2 played out during 2020 with minor variations thanks to a combination of election uncertainty and increased crime.

Major Events Mean Big Business

NICS numbers certainly fit with general patterns that align with realities on the ground, but they lack some important nuance.

The NSSF ran the FBI’s data through their own filtering process to remove as many non-4473 NICS requests as possible. The results generated a conservative estimate of how many guns have moved from sales racks to the gun safes of everyday Americans since January 2000.

The NSSF data revealed more significant spike-slump patterns compared to the FBI’s reports. What really stood out, however, is how well the private sector numbers aligned with major events in or adjacent to the gun world.

As one might expect, election years, high-profile mass shootings, and the pandemic insanity spiked gun sales. Less mainstream events, like Trump’s introduction of the ill-fated bump stock ban, his “guns first, due process second” statement, and the Supreme Court’s 2022 Bruen decision, also caused numbers to surge, although temporarily.

The NSSF’s data fits better with the lived experiences of American gun buyers, but it also reveals another fascinating trend.

Analyzing the Trends

If the numbers tell us anything, it’s that people’s sense of stability and security are key to understanding gun-buying habits.

Election years create plenty of uncertainty, thus inflating gun sales for months at a time. The inevitable political grandstanding and media frenzy make Americans wonder if “this time” gun control efforts will pass.

The pandemic and the accompanying unrest America experienced in 2020 and 2021 doubled down, threatening many people’s sense of security and stability. This two-year period saw more guns sold than ever, and for the first time in 25 years, more than 10% of the U.S. population submitted to NICS background checks (11.69% and 11.43%, respectively).

In 2020, 71-year-old grandmother and first-time gun owner Charlotte Heller told The Morning Call that she once saw guns as unnecessary.

“Let me tell you, I’ve never liked guns. I was always kind of afraid of guns,” she said, but current events altered her view. “Protesting is fine when it’s peaceful, but when they started looting…that was just ridiculous,” she said. “I’d rather be safe than sorry.”

Oliva cites self-defense as a key motivation for new gun buyers. He notes that handguns, an excellent self-defense tool, account for over half of all firearm sales each year. A 2017 Pew Research Center poll also reported that 72% of gun owners name “personal protection” as their top reason for purchasing a firearm.

Final Thoughts

Quiet, peaceful times lead to quiet, peaceful gun stores, and today seems to be just such a time despite an ongoing presidential race.

As of August 2024, both FBI and NSSF numbers are failing to live up to past election year trends, but gun sales will undoubtedly see an end-of-year bump as Christmas closes in and hunting seasons kick off around the country. Barring extreme circumstances, the data indicates that 2024 will likely see the first election-year firearm sales downturn in the past quarter century.

That said, most Americans only start paying attention to presidential politics in September, once summer vacation ends. Much could still change in the last three months of the year, especially during the lead-up to election day.

A renewed sense of uncertainty could give gun retailers another election-year boom and gun buyers a reason to regret their summer splurges.

What’s your take on the impact of elections on guns? Let us know in the comments below. For a look into the 2024 candidates’ POV on guns, head over to Gun Policies in the 2024 Election: Where the Candidates Stand.